Subjective Sampling Approaches to Resource Estimation

This paper suggests deficiencies in present sampling approaches to regional resource estimation, and ways in which these deficiencies might be remedied. General approaches to resource estimation are discussed, as are requirements which well conceived approaches should satisfy. Using presently available theory, a comprehensive sampling approach to estimation can be formulated. The results of such an analysis are directly incorporable into decisions concerning exploration strategy optimization. However, further computational and experimental work are required before this approach is operational

Spatial Process Modeling for Air Pollution Standards: A Problem Statement

Spatial process models have application to problems in several disciplines. The problem presented here treats monitoring and control of air pollution, but the methodological base seems similar to several other problems, and the hope in outlining this problem is to perhaps generate interest in others working on similar problems, or towards work on this problem itself

Comments on Decision Objectives and Attributes for the Nuclear Siting Study

The object of this paper is to summarize discussions at IIASA on attributes or indices for siting decision making. While I have attempted to include differing views on most attributes, I make no pretense of this being an unbiased review. In addressing decisions of any type and public policy decisions in particular, the choices which one makes of goals, attributes, and normative models fairly well determines a priori what the conclusions will be. It is here that decisions are actually made. Therefore it is absolutely necessary that we be judicious in our selections. In some sense, all that follows these choices is a technical follow through, although this somewhat overstates the point. The present paper may be summarized as follows. First, a short discussion of goals and attributes is presented; then a set of attributes is listed according to inferred objectives; and finally, each objective and attribute is reviewed and recommendations are made

Probability Theory in Geological Exploration

The purpose of this review is to summarize briefly certain applications of probability theory and statistics to geological exploration and inference, and in particular to problems of economic geology. The hope is that this summary will be of use in planning the IIASA conference on resource estimation scheduled for May, 1975, and will provide a reference within which to review certain contributions to that conference

Standards for Facility Siting: Uncertain Utility in Decision-Making

One approach to regulating private siting decisions is by setting standards on the impacts of large constructed facilities. Theoretical structures of preferences for and among preferences, however, lead to implications which are sometimes overlooked in standard setting. Further, a central issue is that the objective function describing societal preferences is uncertain. Analytically including objective function uncertainty in standard setting allows information from several sources to be quantitatively coalesced, allows allocation decisions for investment in preference assessment to be quantitatively analyzed, and leads to speculations on the handling of temporal changes in preference

Extensions of K.J. Roy's and R.E. Roadifer's Subjective Approach to Oil Resource Estimation

Messrs. Roy and Roadifer, in separate papers, have proposed similar methodologies for making regional resource estimates. The idea underlying their approach is quite interesting, and may have extensions incorporable in larger schemes of estimation. Roy's and Roadifer's approach adopts a simple "structural" model of deposit size, and uses the subjective feelings of geologists to generate probability density functions (pdf's) of the model parameters. A pdf of regional resources is approximated by using Monte Carlo simulation

Sampling for Group Utility

A sampling theory approach is developed for estimating group utility functions for inclusion in decision-analytic approaches to public plan evaluation. This approach is based. on Bayesian sampling theory and leads to estimates of group utility accounting for sampling and measurement error. The results of the estimation may be directly incorporated in decision analysis. The strength of this approach is that it leads to more rigorously based estimates of interest group utility functions than commonly used. surrogates, and can be analytically balanced with other forms of preference information such as market data

Balancing Apples and Oranges: Methodologies for Facility Siting Decisions

Evaluating alternative sites for major constructed facilities requires comparing impacts of different levels and different types to establish desirable yet feasible balances. Currently employed and proposed, methodologies for evaluating the desirability of sets of impacts generated by large facilities are compared, and the theoretical assumptions implicit in each are discussed. In aggregate, the three sets of methodologies considered are Cost-Benefit Analysis and its various modifications, matrix or tableau methods of several sorts, and, preference theory (of which utility is a special case). Primary attention is given to the structure of objective functions defined over impacts

Extrapolating Trending Geological Bodies

An attempt is made to structure the heuristic process of extrapolating trending geologic bodies in the analytic framework of Bayesian inference. The approach models spatial properties of trending bodies rather than geological processes, and includes components of uncertainty arising out of trend model selection. Inclusion of several components of uncertainty leads to rapid dispersion of the probability density of predicted location away from the region of observations, in conformity with the intuitive notion of valid distances of prediction. The philosophical foundations of exploration and the role of probabilistic predictions in decisionmaking are briefly discussed